Re: [GRIMDARK] Fallout Equestria: Project Horizons Discussion

[Admiral Stoic Rum]

Thought I'd drop y'all a

Line

[Cptadder]

Thought I'd drop y'all a

Line

Oh really? Braided, plaited, double tie or an anchor line?

[Derpmind]

I think it's time for em to meditate myself to sleep.

Derp.

For passing the time, there's this blog with reviews of the 6-star EQD stories (before the star ratings were bombed out of relevance.) It does indeed include a review of Past Sins, and in a few weeks there's gonna be a review of Fallout Equestria.

The sentence below is true.
The sentence above is false.

Listen carefully swicked: I am lying to you.

Nice try, but my head was built with paradox-absorbing crumple-zones.

Paradoxes are puzzles to be solved... but the Liar's Paradox is so old that it's already been solved a few times over.

[Guest]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

[Cptadder]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Ahh the classic Monty Hall paradox.

At the start of the show you have three doors, a 33.3% chance of winning the car
After the first goat door is opened you have a 50% chance of winning the car
By the rules of logic if you keep your first choice you have a 33.3% chance of winning even after the first door is opened. Therefor by logic you always switch your choice to improve your chances to 50%.

[FeatherDust]

Ahh the classic Monty Hall paradox.

The most intuitive way I've heard to explain the apparent paradox is this:
When Monty opens a door, he's NEVER going to show you the car. He's not just picking a random door; he knows which ones are good and which ones are bad. So when he reveals a door to you, he's adding information to the system. Therefore, a choice made afterward is a more informed choice than the initial "one of three" pick you made. But sticking with your original door is retaining a less informed choice in spite of new information.

Listen carefully swicked: I am lying to you.

THIS! SENTENCE! IS! FALSE! don't think about it don't think about it don't think about it

[Valikdu]

Um... True. I'm gonna say it's true.

[Kattlarv]

@Kipper: (Surgery) Ah, okay. Good to hear. Also, did you remove it all, or just "enough"?

Spoiler:

(Reckless) Maaaybe

@Robo: Why do so many seem unnerved by me? ... is this because I am
sitting naked, giggling as I play DDO with a gecko on my head? It is,
isn't it?

@Silent: (Quote) I be far too brave. And besides, it was kinda aimed at
several of them. Was mostly used just to joke around though.

@Wave: (Boo) *Gigglesnort* "Quick, deploy the Boo! - ... - Shit, it's
not working! Quick! Bring in the emergency cake and apply 50 CC of
distilled Daw...!"

@Sindri: (Littlehorn) Ah, so it's a technical canon change, with the canon being what "everyone but x" knows it as?

@Night: Oh, come now, we can be more than just friends
Nah but, I really do enjoy this forum. Unlike many other places, a
overwhelming majority here have common sense and understand logic.

@Everypony: (Maripony) From what I recall, it got caught in a outside
blast, not enough to take it down, but enough to irradiate the area
enough for Twi to be unable to leave, since the blast broke her water
talisman of her safe room. And from what I know, she was in there alone
(alone I know) and was doing... whatever when the bomb went off outside.
The rest of the facility broke but was otherwise "unharmed", the
goddess was formed, and she dragged all the other surviving ponies down
into the goop, transforming them, then went got get Twilight, dragging
her down into the goop as well when she was on the verge of either
killing herself of dying of starvation. (and my headcanon of what she
did the last days before transformation is kinda iffy/questionable, same
goes for Pip's lost memory with the enclave mare, although the later
much lacking support for any weird stuff) and Pip stated she wasn't sure
if the safe room would survive a indirect blastwave from outside,
combined with a internally planted bomb INSIDE. But it was her last hope
to survive and get the bomb planted without the ability to bolt from
the place like planned. Kinda found it odd the goddess just didn't find
it, and have an alicorn teleport it elsewhere)

Also, on account of the OIA piggybacking, I actually hope so, then it
would at least be one something any of the origanisations would do that
they weren't the direct mastermind or creator off, seeing how almost
everything "originally" someone elses idea has been swiped from them as
"Oh, it was actually Golden/OIA/that guy's idea, x never did/came up
with anything/that." kinda has been implemented on several occasion.
It's getting a bit boring to find out that they did everything, just
leaving the rest to carry out their deeds.

Re: Steelhooves: He could also say he's a cyberpony, that'd work too. Or
something. And aren't the rangers... "class-ist" or what the hay to
call it, they "hate" everyone that's not a ranger. (and by "hate" I
mean: not give a shit about them, unless it involves killing them for
tech.)

Re: Minty: Welcome back, now you can have your weekly dose of mindfuck on a regular basis :D
@Jermy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=137Ei0C3Vdg#t=111s

[Guest]

Ahh the classic Monty Hall paradox.

The most intuitive way I've heard to explain the apparent paradox is this:
When Monty opens a door, he's NEVER going to show you the car. He's not just picking a random door; he knows which ones are good and which ones are bad. So when he reveals a door to you, he's adding information to the system. Therefore, a choice made afterward is a more informed choice than the initial "one of three" pick you made. But sticking with your original door is retaining a less informed choice in spite of new information.

Exactly. Ah, reminds me of my childhood - I found an old book of paradoxes when I was younger, and this was one of them. I think my favorite was the Unexpected Tiger, though... let me see if I can lay it out properly.


A prince has been courting a princess for a while now, and the two are finally going to tell the princess' father about their relationship, and get married. The king thinks this is all well and good, but worries that his new potential son-in-law might not be qualified to be the ruler of an entire nation. Being a very clever king, he reasons that the most important attribute of any ruler is the power to murder a big cat when you're not expecting to have to murder a big cat. To this end, he devises a test: the prince is presented with a series of twelve doors, and is told that behind one of them will be a tiger. The prince's task will be to kill this beastie; however, the king warns, this will be an Unexpected Tiger, so he should approach the matter with some trepidation.

The prince counts himself as somewhat of an intellect (as well as an expert tiger-slayer), so he sits down and starts to think out the problem. "Well, let's see... it can't be the last door, because if I've opened the other eleven, it'd stand to logic that the tiger must be behind twelve! And that wouldn't be terribly unexpected, now would it? But now, having ruled out twelve, that means it can't be eleven for the same reasons - I'd know that the only door an otherwise-unexpected tiger would be behind would be eleven, out of the remaining two doors." Going with this train of logic, the prince rules out all the doors, from one to twelve. "Ha!" he thinks. "There's no tiger behind any door at all!"

Enthused with confidence, the prince boldly begins throwing open each door, and is shocked when a tiger leaps from behind door five - as the king promised, the prince was not expecting that! So, what's wrong with the prince's reasoning? BONUS: What's wrong with using tigers, unexpected or otherwise, to determine the legitimacy of a government?

[Aonee]

Simple. By ruling out all doors, this makes a tiger behind any one of them unexpected yet again. Also, although a tiger may be a sign of great power, respect, loyalty, and cunning, intellect is normally represented in other forms, such as an elephant.

[Kippershy]

@Kipper: (Surgery) Ah, okay. Good to hear. Also, did you remove it all, or just "enough"?

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

[Sindri]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Ahh the classic Monty Hall paradox.

At the start of the show you have three doors, a 33.3% chance of winning the car
After the first goat door is opened you have a 50% chance of winning the car
By the rules of logic if you keep your first choice you have a 33.3% chance of winning even after the first door is opened. Therefor by logic you always switch your choice to improve your chances to 50%.

Incorrect. By switching you actually go up to a 67% chance to win. Because if there's a 1/3 chance that the first was right, there's a 2/3 chance that one of the others was right. Once he opens one door and shows you a goat, he's telling you that if the car was behind one of the doors you didn't pick (2/3 chance) it's definitely the other one.

(Littlehorn)

No change, just filling in what was once a mystery, like so much of the history of the war.

Enthused with confidence, the prince boldly begins throwing open each door, and is shocked when a tiger leaps from behind door five - as the king promised, the prince was not expecting that! So, what's wrong with the prince's reasoning? BONUS: What's wrong with using tigers, unexpected or otherwise, to determine the legitimacy of a government?

There's a tiger behind every door. An unintelligent prince would expect a 1/12 chance of a tiger on the first door, so wouldn't be prepared. A smart but not smart enough prince would use the same reasoning as in the story, and expect no tiger. A true king-to-be would realize that the king was lying.


But really, neither combat ability nor simple logic puzzles should be used to determine rulership. An economics test would be more appropriate, especially if combined with a situation forcing them to convince uncooperative underlings to work together to accomplish some task. Perhaps toss them in a pit with a bunch of monkeys and sticks until they make a monkey-and-stick ladder hold together long enough to climb out?

[FeatherDust]

tiger logic

The problem with his reasoning is that it is based on a false premise.

IF the tiger was not behind doors 1-11, THEN it cannot be behind 12. THEREFORE if the tiger was not behind 1-10, it cannot be behind door 11. Which we have alrady excluded in step 1. It's circular logic. If the tiger is not behind doors 1-11, then it's not behind 12, and it's not behind 1-11.

All doors are excluded because all doors are excluded, which was a statement made by the prince with no supporting evidence.

Or to put it another way:
If the tiger is not behind 1-11, it must not be behind 12. The tiger is behind door 5, so the IF fails and any logic proceeding from that IF is invalid.

[Sindri]

tiger logic

The problem with his reasoning is that it is based on a false premise.

IF the tiger was not behind doors 1-11, THEN it cannot be behind 12. THEREFORE if the tiger was not behind 1-10, it cannot be behind door 11. Which we have alrady excluded in step 1. It's circular logic, the tiger can't be behind door 12, therefore it can't be behind 11 (assuming it is not behind 12).

All doors are excluded because all doors are excluded, which was a statement made by the prince with no supporting evidence.

Or to put it another way:
If the tiger is not behind 1-11, it must not be behind 12. The tiger is behind door 5, so the IF fails and any logic proceeding from that IF is invalid.

The logic is sound, but relies on the assumption that there is one and only one tiger, and that the tiger cannot be behind the last door (because it would then be expected). If it is not behind 1-11, it cannot be behind 12 because it would be expected. If it is behind 1-11, it also cannot be behind 12 because that would require it to be in two places at once. Therefore, whether it is behind 1-11 or not, it isn't behind 12. Thus there are only 11 doors that matter. Repeat until all have been eliminated.

The problem with pure logic to solve all your problems is that it will give you perfect answers if and only if you give it perfect information. If you assume something that is not necessarily true, a valid logical course will give you terrible results. And all too often we assume things to be true without even realizing that we're doing so.

Edit: yes, you could also have one tiger in a room connected to multiple doors. Change that first assumption to "there is one and only one door with a tiger behind it."

[Guest]

@FeatherDust
Actually, I'm not sure that explanation works - the IF/THEN statement isn't broken by the tiger being behind door 5, it merely does not come into play, so to speak. Ex: "2x = 4y; If x=2, then y = 1." Now, if x actually 3, this does not mean that the IF/THEN statement is false. (Apologies for crappy logic vocabulary/symbols; I have not taken a course in formal logic)

(This is sort of an addendum to Sindri's post now, I guess)

@Sindri
Nope, there's only one tiger. =P This king got the short end of the stick when it came to inbreeding (in fairness, that stick really only has short ends).

[SilentCarto]

You missed my point. It's a mystery, we know a few details but we don't know the history. That has to be a two hundred year old balefire bomb meaning it has to be one of the bombs meant for the first strike, where was it going, how did it end up in a barn in the middle of nowhere? We don't know. And my point was not about the Steel Rangers in general but Steelhooves specifically. He gets ghouled by the pink wave he wakes up and then what? He has two hundred years of history between the end of the war and when he meets Littlepip... we don't get 1/1000th of that time. Likewise we know the general start point of the Balefire bomb, and we know where it ended up... what about the in between bits?

This could be a rather humongous side Fic of its own.

Yeah, seriously. I strongly suspect he's one of the "heroes who gave up" that Homage talks about.

I'd also like to see some of Homage's low-level adventures with Jokeblue.

THIS! SENTENCE! IS! FALSE! don't think about it don't think about it don't think about it

Meh, any AI that can't reject bad linguistic input deserves to crash.

Exactly. Ah, reminds me of my childhood - I found an old book of paradoxes when I was younger, and this was one of them. I think my favorite was the Unexpected Tiger, though... let me see if I can lay it out properly.

I walk in and look at the twelve doors. "Since you've already told me the tiger is behind one of these doors, it would not be much of a surprise to find it behind any of them. Therefore, there is not an unexpected tiger behind any of these doors. The unexpected tiger, then, is no more, and I have therefore slain it."

[Jeremyrush]

So I need to burn 24 hours. Anyone have any good methods?

1.)Go to the TvTropes site.
2.)Go to the SCP site.
3.)Read a book.
4.)Read Past Sins by Penstroke.
5.)If you've already read Past Sins, read it again because there's probably been some form of rewrite.
6.)Meditate
7.)Play a Fallout game until your Xbox freezes up. Then restart it and keep going.
8.)Sleep
9.)Do chores
10.) Go to work.

1: Already read about 90% of it.
2: Already read about 80% of it.
3: Books are for sissies. Not to mention I've read a shit load.
4: Already did it.
5: Already did it.
6: I'm not a monk.
7: I have over 500 hours spread across both games.
8: Done
9: Done
10: Don't have one.

11.) Try to read our RP from first thread and to last one, without skips.

11: Hahaha. Fuck that. I would go mad before the day is done.

-Read books
-Do a season marathon on a good SF series
-Play Dwarf Fortress
-Play a Black Isle / Obsidian / Bioware RPG
-Sleep

12: Already answered this.
13: WTF is SF
14: I have at least 250 hours in that game. At least 50 are on your mod.
15: I have no money to purchase said games. Not really all that interested anyway. Only thing I want to try is KOTOR, but the major twist was already spoiled for me. Thank you, TV Tropes.
16: What is with you people and sleeping? Are you sloths?

[Kippershy]

Go read my fic.
LOL

Don't really do that. It's shit compared to PH and you'll be let down.

[Sindri]

So, want some anime recs? What are your tastes?

[jacky2734]

More options to pass the time:

- Go to the local park and practice parkour
- Go to the local pool for the afternoon
- Get drunk
- Go to the local mall
- Bake a cake
- Read "My Little Avengers" by Koolerkid
- Visit family
- Invent your own language
- Download minecraft and build your own rendition of Hoofington
- Download minecraft and try to replicate any of those crazy redstone circuit computers you see on Youtube
- Download minecraft and play through the adventure mode.
- Download minecraft and do anything with it.
- Build a wooden table.
- Go out to the gun range and shoot shit.

Need I go on?

[NoodleNugget]

@Jeremyrush
Write a story.
Start a debate
go to town
sleep
repeat things that have already been said
repeat things that have already been said
find a webcomic and read it.
help me think up a name for a ghoul character that only has 3 legs

[Jeremyrush]

So, want some anime recs? What are your tastes?

I'm not an anime fan. I have no qualms with the genre, but I haven't seen anything that has blown me away. Something about the art style just turns me off I guess.

[Admiral Stoic Rum]

The admiral has set sail and stopped at port

[Kippershy]

Don't really do that. It's shit compared to PH and you'll be let down.

*boot to the head*
I did another review :P

As always - thank you, you're awesome.
And super thank you for finding that inconsistency. Don't know how it slipped by me.

[Kippershy]

Don't really do that. It's shit compared to PH and you'll be let down.

*boot to the head*
I did another review :P

As always - thank you, you're awesome.
And super thank you for finding that inconsistency. Don't know how it slipped by me.

Crimson: "I am such an expert haggler I can start out 25% over the asking price and STILL get it down to a good deal!"
Shopkeep: "Uh... I'm sitting right here, and that's a terrible plan."
Crimson: "Quiet, I'm about to be BRILLIANT!"
*fifteen minutes later*
Crimson: "...I just don't know what went wrong!"

AHAHAHHAHAHAH
You have just made it so he's going to do that for real now. (and actually get the deal)

[SilentCarto]

A prince has been courting a princess for a while now, and the two are finally going to tell the princess' father about their relationship, and get married. The king thinks this is all well and good, but worries that his new potential son-in-law might not be qualified to be the ruler of an entire nation. Being a very clever king, he reasons that the most important attribute of any ruler is the power to murder a big cat when you're not expecting to have to murder a big cat. To this end, he devises a test: the prince is presented with a series of twelve doors, and is told that behind one of them will be a tiger. The prince's task will be to kill this beastie; however, the king warns, this will be an Unexpected Tiger, so he should approach the matter with some trepidation.

UNEXPECTED TIGER!

[Sindri]

So, want some anime recs? What are your tastes?

I'm not an anime fan. I have no qualms with the genre, but I haven't seen anything that has blown me away. Something about the art style just turns me off I guess.

Not a genre any more than "live action television" is. It would help to know which you've seen and not liked, but in the absence of information there are a few I'd recommend to most people. tvTropes has more information, I can provide links for viewing on request. In no particular order:

Puella Magi Madoka Magica
Fullmetal Alchemist (original anime or Brotherhood, or both)
Baccano!
Code Geass
Durarara!!
Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex (very complex; best if you have time to dedicate and a fully functional mind at the time)
Mirai Nikki (translates as Future Diary in the english)
Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann (all but episode 4. People were fired after that one aired...)

[Ametros]

When being stalked by the 'Raspberry Fiend' you:

Release the tiger!!


Oh god I hope you people are cultured and watch Monty Python...

[jacky2734]

Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann (all but episode 4. People were fired after that one aired...)

What was wrong with episode 4?

Also you forgot, Inyuyasha, YuYuhakusho, the original DBZ, and FLCL.

[Katarn]

You forget masterpiece like:
Trigun and Darker than Black

@Jacky
FLCL? Srysly? You want to blow up his mind? :D

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