Re: The True Story of Shadow Kicker (and other Winningverse speculation)

[O. Hinds]

Ooh, I hadn't thought of that. Hm...
The main difficulty I can see is that, while for the most part Shadow could potentially rely on threats, loyalty, and the odd "accidental death" to keep the secret until it was just a matter of history, wouldn't Celestia notice that she apparently very recently had an Archmagus of the Eastern March that she doesn't remember at all?
Perhaps, instead of being completely fabricated, he was retroactively given some "secret" involvement with Shadow.

Oh, it looks like Copper Spark was introduced in Chapter 9 but hasn't appeared since.

Spoiler:

Shadow has to fly back to Pegasopolis before the dinner can take place, though.
…Given that we've not seen anything of his family yet and assuming that he did actually exist, I'm kind of wondering if his family, or at least his wife, might be passing into history rather a lot sooner than he will. But then again, the hints of romance with him may be entirely to deflect suspicion from Shadow's feelings for Celestia. We'll see.

[O. Hinds]

Aren't there only four ponies of Copper's station, though?
In any case, however, I could certainly see the meeting being fabricated, or at the very least the contents thereof. Even if any of the witnesses remembered Shadow departing with Copper, no one observed the meeting itself.

I do disagree slightly about how blameless she's making herself; she does seem to hint that she on some level knows that it would be better to ally with Sunbeam. The effect, however, I think is greater than if she was just absolving herself of all responsibility. This is, once again, an example of Shadow "messing up", making a mistake to prevent herself from being perfect and yet somehow not seeming to lose reputation from it. Celestia can barely do any wrong at all (what seem to be her mistakes are really always someone else's fault), and Shadow and Gale aren't that perfect but only ever seem to get slaps on the fetlocks in terms of whether they're in the right or not.
In this case, the mistake is also an example of her obviously not plotting anything; she was just swept along by a righteous, if perhaps unwise under the circumstances, abhorrence of working together with a scheming foal-killer. That she'll be in a perfect position to blame any questionable tactics on Duke Polaris and quite likely end up saving the day after he does or "does" something horribly incompetent and/or cruel never entered her mind.

Oh, and another advantage of Copper: he's her stated source for detailed inside information on Canterlot politics, as opposed to her daughter/spymaster, who we already know, IIRC, has agents in the city (and who has already, among no doubt many other things, broken into Sunbeam's chambers and made off with classified Unicornian state documents).

[O. Hinds]

Btw, Gale has never broken into Sunbeam's chambers; I suspect she is too smart to attempt it.
Sunbeam is an incredibly dangerous and accomplished magus and breaking into her study would very likely end with the interloper fried either on the spot or after Sunbeam showed up to see what tripped her intruder-incapacitating jinxes.
Gale is clever, but she's no unicorn. Even with a means of detecting the wards she could not break them, particularly without Sunbeam noticing.
Sunbeam's greatest weakness continues to be her daughter. The wards would be set not to hurt Midnight and Sunbeam likely intentionally calls Midnight to her study often-enough. Worse, Sunbeam keeps expecting Midnight to learn how to see through Gale's lies and manipulations since Midnight would never want to intentionally upset her mother. Midnight is just too timid for that, though, and so remains a means for Gale to access Sunbeam's documents.
It seems somewhat funny that Sunbeam matches "the definition of insanity" here. She keeps standing by while Midnight is manipulated, expecting a different result when she should just bar Midnight from ever entering her study ever again.

Hm, I'd still call it breaking in. It's just that the lockpick is filly-shaped.

Well, really, how long can Midnight keep falling for it? She's meant to be a strong, independent archmage, after all; doesn't Sunbeam keep telling her to be that and to not let people push her around? :)
Yeah, bit of a blind spot there...

[O. Hinds]

Hm, good idea. Do you think that it just hasn't occurred to Sunbeam?

Regarding the second idea, I agree on why it would be discarded by am not certain that Sunbeam wouldn't think of it. What do you mean by "a bit too forward"?

[O. Hinds]

I don't think that she'd actually use that idea; if she thought of it, it would be quickly discarded due to her wanting not to use her daughter that way (though she'd probably be bothered by wanting not to use her daughter that way). I'm not sure you're right about her not thinking of it, though. Sunbeam is direct and pragmatic, but sometimes the most direct and pragmatic course, particularly in this world of politics and subterfuge, is not a straight line. She might observe that her daughter seems to be unable to shake Gale on her own and have the idea of simultaneously striking at Shadow and making Midnight less useful to Gale.

[O. Hinds]

New Chapter Comments:

[O. Hinds]

So Chengar Qordath has apparently read this thread now!

>> Reese
Have to admit, that made for some very interesting reading. Have to say, you guys did pick up on one or two things that haven't been noticed by most of the readers, and I'm enough of a fan of alternate character interpretation to find the theory entertaining.

[O. Hinds]

No idea. Another mystery...

So did I!

[Forevermore]

I've been reading through your discussion and I agree with most of it. The interpretation of Shadow as a magnificent bastard was inspired and greatly increases her depth as a character. Gale's interpretation came something out of left field for me, but after reading the arguments and looking back on her interactions with Midnight, it does make a scary sort of sense.

One thing I do have to disagree with you about is your interpretation of Celestia as a purely reactive ruler. While the Winningverse incarnation strays pretty far from my own, she does seem to have something of a longterm plan working out in order to better Equestria. Celestia's problem seems to be more that she doesn't see her subjects as actual people. This likely comes from her own immortal perspective, "What's a pony if they're just going to be a corpse within a century?" Many of Celestia's interactions seem forced, as if she's deliberately trying to make herself care about who she's talking to, or even that she's talking to somepony at all.
Celestia took her outing in stride because to her it isn't a big deal. She has problems to address, and she has the time to fix them. The Ephorate can be satisfied that they did something, and she can wait fifty or one hundred years for them to calm down or be replaced. Then she can address the new one and try to be better.
The same can be said of the earth ponies. To Celestia, the election doesn't matter as she can just wait for the next one. And the next one. And the next one. All while using her wisdom and influence to guide things the way she wants them to go. It's not like anyone is just going to ignore the centuries old immortal if she's giving you advice.
Having seen countless ponies die of old age, I find it very hard to believe that Celestia actually cares about the current generation. They are literally dust in the wind to her. While she may hate to see them suffer, she is perfectly willing to simply wait and try again in the future.

I believe her relationship with Shadow is also open to interpretation. If we assume that your interpretation is correct, that Shadow is heavily modifying history to put herself in a positive light, then we must also consider just how much Celestia actually cared about the pony. It's entirely possible that many of their more intimate, private moments were fabricated by Shadow to feed her own unhealthy obsession with the alicorn. Particularly given Celestia's ability to see into the hearts of ponies, I find it difficult to believe that she is as blind to Shadow's mental health as you imply. It is within the realm of possibility that Celestia is deliberately feeding her obsession in order to ensure Shadow's loyalty and continued usefulness. Just as she did with Sunbeam, heaping power upon her again and again while publicly condemning her actions.

Sunbeam's deposition is another example. The casual brutality of the juris ungula spectacle heavily implies that this isn't the first time Sunbeam has maimed a pony for her own ends. Yet she has never been publicly reprimanded for it until such an action benefited Shadow. Celestia is fully aware of both ponies' personal loyalty to her, and her every action serves to ensure that loyalty remains unshaken. Her entire "mishandling" of the Ephorate after her removal lead directly to Shadow, an able military commander, and hundreds of elite pegasus warriors abandoning their home and their culture to join her, after all.

Polaris, as much as I loath how the character is being handled, is established as a firm political opponent. Now he's in charge of the army, doomed to fail, and with his failure Celestia can endorse a more suitable candidate (Shadow) and earn back the public's trust and loyalty. Needing a powerful ally, Shadow will undoubtedly appoint Sunbeam to a high position. Thus, by sacrificing a few meaningless pony soldiers to the meat grinder, Celestia places both her most loyal followers into positions of extreme power and removes the greatest internal threat to her control.

You interpret Shadow and Sunbeam as being the chessmasters, yet the immortal they supposedly manipulate seems to be getting the better end of the bargain.

[O. Hinds]

"I have been ill at ease ever since determining that I cannot e’en offer a negotiated settlement for fear of appearing weak."
Oh?  You already lost a third of your realm to open rebellion, and another third is in the grip of civil war.  You're worried about appearing weak, now?  So worried that it's stopping you from trying to prevent more bloodshed?
swicked, what's your insight into Celestia's thought processes here?  I'm not understanding what she's thinking.  Alternatively, if this really isn't in character, why would this bit of the history have been revised?

It doesn't look like I ever addressed this bit.

It's difficult to say, exactly. Celestia's ruling style is reactionary, as I've said before. She lets things boil over, even encourages them to, then moves to put out the fires. Emergency meetings with griffin diplomatic envoys resulting in significantly beneficial settlements. Emergency meetings with Ephorate to try to maintain the peace. Emergency meetings with the popular opposition in an election to try and stave a revolution.
Her style hasn't worked so well as of late.
She listens to her ponies, though, and I think someone talked to her. Many someones, perhaps. The new archmagus, maybe?
Her instincts are definitely to go and obtain peace at almost any cost. She's even grumbling about the fact that she's not being allowed to do so. This, clearly, would not have been her choice if she hadn't agreed to follow someone else's advice on the matter. Someone persuasive that she trusts to know what she should do better than she, herself, does... after all, I'm pretty sure she lays most of the blame for this civil war on herself.

I honestly feel like she should be more emotional right now. She doesn't want anyone to die. She doesn't want that on her conscience.
I could actually imagine her crying a bit, here, at how screwed-up everything is. She might have even stated to Shadow who is was that has told her she cannot give in.
Honestly, though... Shadow would be among them. Shadow might even BE the one telling her this. Shadow's goal is to decimate the pegasi for the sake of the new empire, so she would be among those telling Celestia that she cannot let the pegasi continue.
If there has been some history editing here, it would include Shadow stating that this was the right decision.

Hm, yes, I can see that. Celestia's faith in her ability to keep ponies together at all must be awfully shaken at the moment… "The earth ponies already doubt you, and nothing need be said of the pegasi. You tried to settle this peacefully, and it didn't work. Negotiations now wouldn't bring peace; they'd just convince all concerned that you didn't think you could defend anypony." And either Polaris will be surprisingly competent and, being quite tribalist, do her job for her, or he'll fail as expected, probably badly, and be a suitable example for why a firmer hoof is needed. Shadow would definitely have reasons for supporting this course of action (including wanting Celestia to look like a strong ruler as an end in addition to a means) and motivations for hiding her support of it.

That said, I'm not sure that she started it. She certainly could have, but, while she's a lot more competent than we're lead to believe, she's not omnipotent and is in relatively unfamiliar and unfriendly territory. There certainly really would have been political maneuvering directly and indirectly against her by the entrenched unicorn elite, groups of whom were likely interested for their own reasons in prosecuting a war. And, if you didn't see it in the comments, Chengar Qordath hinted that Duke Polaris is indeed much more than he appears.

It will be interesting if we end up seeing Shadow facing off against somepony trying to play more or less the same game she is. That's not really the case with Sunbeam, I'd say; she thinks differently and has a goal that, while somewhat compatible, is fundamentally different ("Build a strong, unified Equestria" instead of "Build up the power, wealth, and fame of X").

[O. Hinds]

@Forevermore:
Firstly, welcome to the forum!
Secondly, I apologize for the delay in replying, but by chance your post was more or less simultaneous with an email from someone in another group of friends wanting to talk about another bit of worldbuilding I'm involved in.

re Celestia:
I think that swicked has a much better understanding of Celestia than I do, so I think that I'll leave this to him.

re Sunbeam:
Hm. I at first couldn't place why I disagreed with your argument and was wondering if there might be some truth to it, but, on further reflection, I realized that this is what I had been subconsciously objecting to:
"The casual brutality of the juris ungula spectacle heavily implies that this isn't the first time Sunbeam has maimed a pony for her own ends."
I do not think that it implies that. Perhaps it would for a pony who thinks in the normal manner, but we have seen that Sunbeam does not. Brutality becoming casual does not require the overcoming of a natural mental block by experience if that block was not there to begin with, and neither does the absence of such a block imply a drive to do what it would have prevented. I'd imagine that Sunbeam simply saw no inherent reason not to do such things but also no reason to do them and several non-inherent reasons not to do them. She then found herself in a situation where it seemed to her to be not just acceptable but optimal, and so she made use of her lack of an inhibition. With some enthusiasm, since it was a rare activity, a good opportunity to vent frustration, and likely of anatomical interest.

[Forevermore]

I can't really think of a counterargument, but it just seems to me like Sunbeam's methodology and skill at the subject seems like it would require prior experience. Given her profession, it's not unlikely that she's gone up against rogue pegasi and griffons in the past.

[O. Hinds]

I've just reread the concerned part of Chapter 7, and I don't think that, based on what we saw, she'd necessarily need prior experience.
You may indeed be right about her having gone up against rogues in the past, but it's unlikely that she'd be reprimanded for her behavior there.

[O. Hinds]

...given how much of a liar we've established Shadow is, I always feel the desire to question whenever she justifies her actions like this.
She could have stated she went to see Duke Polaris at the Royal Court as that was the way two servants of the princess should meet. Something that succinctly states her intent. Instead, she explains for a paragraph how bad of an idea it would be to visit him at his home and so she certainly didn't do that.
I don't think this would be covering anything particularly terrible up, to be honest, but given Shadow has never taken the time to try and understand unicorn culture, I have a feeling she actually just took Gale's advice and intelligence on these matters, much like she did for the nearly entirely fictional account she gave us in the last chapter. Shadow then edited Gale out of these accounts to strengthen Shadow's own position as not-a-sneaky-pony.

Hm. The thing is, if she wanted to cover up not meeting with Polaris at all, wouldn't it have been easier to say that she did meet him at his home, where there'd be fewer witnesses? Polaris, assuming her survives, could probably be bribed or blackmailed. With the meeting claimed to be in court, compensating for all the people who didn't see her would be significantly more difficult. You have a point about the justification, I think, but it seems to me that it likely covers up something other than the simple lack of a meeting. Hm… I'm not sure what, though.

...what a strange sentiment...

Why? Partly, it's another attempt to conceal her plans, and I expect that it's at least a little bit genuine. Unicornia is very obviously by far the best, indeed quite likely the only, route to Celestia's absolute power, but I imagine that Shadow would have preferred to work with Pegasopolis if she could.

...she kind of skipped a connecting thought, there. Is the implication that Sunbeam would not damage the reputation of somepony she wished to ally with?
Because I would more of think Sunbeam could generally be expected not to waste effort on fruitless endeavors. On pointless revenge or petty mudslinging without feeling she strictly needed to do so for the sake of her ambitions.

Shadow's description makes Sunbeam sound more evil. Hey, you want to bet that, after all this is over and Shadow is Lady Protector, the press somehow rather often gets the impression that the Lady Protector's mistakes were actually the Grand Vizier's?

...well, that's interesting. I know it's just integrating canon, but this means the Wonderbolts definitely exist right now, right?
So, if Shadow going to meet with their head after this?

Yeah, like I said, I don't care for that. I don't think that that Wonderbolts ought to exist yet or did exist metaprior to this.

...I am loving Sunbeam. Gosh, yes, show that blowhard the business!

:)
And apparently she speaks with a Scottish (Scoltish?) accent, too, at least when she's extremely annoyed.

[O. Hinds]

...I don't follow what you are saying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trotsky#Assassination
…Okay, it's not actually a very good comparison. Just, wow, Shadow calling Cyclone a traitor…

I think we've already talked about how alluring it can be to simply take a narrative at face value :P

Have we? My apologies, then, as I still don't seem to be remembering it.

I mostly just think it's an asinine statement to make regarding such a forthright fellow. This guy is a willing ally, seemingly wholesome and of a thoroughly good nature. He's not the smallest of the small fry by any means and what would be the point of "refusing" someone who is willing to support her for who he thinks she is without any payment or favor asked?

Oh, no, that's not what I meant. I was just again mentioning that apparently "could hardly afford to refuse anypony" is followed by an unvoiced "except Sunbeam Sparkle, despite all the reasons people I trust keep giving me for why she would be a good ally".

What do you mean, what's really going on here? Much like the pegasi government had to have reason to be completely dismantled, the earth pony government needed to be shattered before anyone could be saved. If it could have somehow been stabilized through clever political maneuvering Celestia might have been more inclined to allow them to continue to exist as a republic. Right now, with the earth pony capital and center over government completely turned to the side of the enemy, nothing need be saved of it.

Oh, of course! Why didn't I see that? Thanks, swicked.

[O. Hinds]

I think we've already talked about how alluring it can be to simply take a narrative at face value :P

Have we?  My apologies, then, as I still don't seem to be remembering it.

I thought it was the first discussion we had regarding this fic. You were unhappy because you were taking the narrative at face value. I pointed out that it works better if you don't. If you approach it with the understanding that it's an unreliable narrator.
It's just that people like to believe what they read, especially if what they are reading is compelling.
With enough repetition, people will believe anything.

Ah, thanks.
...I still don't get it, though. As we and a few others have been saying, this particular story is more compelling when not taken at face value.

[O. Hinds]

They've been told, from this story and all across the winningverse, that Shadow is/was basically a saint. So she is :P

Well, once again, I still don't really get it, but I suppose that I ought to be glad. If everyone saw straight through the deception, it would be an implausible explanation for the story and thus prevent us from having all of this fun speculating. :)

Because, if they did, I have no idea how she could have covered it up.

Possibly she could just say that the preparations didn't work? It would depend on the details. It looks like the interlude posted today deals with Manehattan, though; I'm going to try and get that read before class.

[O. Hinds]

Well, I didn't manage to get it read before class, but I did get it read.

So, commentary on the new interlude chapter:

[O. Hinds]

And seriously, given this interlude... why are we supposed to be sympathizing with the Loyalists, again? (Not counting Sunbeam, I mean; however awesome she may be, I don't think that she alone is enough to carry her side in the war.)

[O. Hinds]

Two things. Firstly:

>> Reese
Chapter 2

6: Oh for the love of Celestia, just bang him already!

I think we have some strong evidence that it is Cloud.

I apologize for missing that earlier.

Secondly, there's going to be another story in the Phoenix Empress AU!

[O. Hinds]

Comments on the new Lunar Rebellion chapter:

[O. Hinds]

Well, I don't think that the new Phoenix Empire story provides much material for our speculations here, but I found it a fun read. :)

[O. Hinds]

No problem. I've not been doing as much pony reading as I'd like either due to the other things vying for my time (though they're mostly other recreational activities at the moment, as the summer semester doesn't start until the end of the month).

Nice new avatar, by the way.

[O. Hinds]

(This post may be a bit of a mess, as I'm very hungry at the moment.)

Ooh, the LMR images are back!

"I take it this is Twilight Sparkle? Or is it Sunset Shimmer? It's Sunset Shimmer's attitude and I'm getting a serious sense of déjà vu. That said, if Twilight's authority figure was a bit less kind, I've no doubt she'd conform to be just as unpleasant."
I had the same sort of wondering.

Why reform the Crystal Empire instead of just colonizing the land and adding it to Equestria? I don't know if that's what happened, but it seems logical.

"Depending on how far back she knew, herself, that her sister would be freed."
Well, that book was written at some point. People probably do from time to time ask about why the celebration is there, but I imagine that Sunbeam has a good mysterious smile or whatever by this point.

"This feels dreadfully insecure. There ARE shape shifters, after all. It seems like this should merit some form of biometric identification rather than simply sight.
I mean, even if they have magic in the castle to cancel all illusion, what's to stop someone from dying themselves Sunset's colors and slapping a couple stickers on their rump?"
"Without any trouble" doesn't necessarily mean "without any identification procedures".

"Huh, she's really dialed back her aggression all of a sudden. She essentially responded to "Do you want to come to my party?" with "You fools have no idea how utterly absurd it would be for me to waste my time on the likes of you!" I would have expected "No one would dare question me for leaving the tools of my spellwork behind. Such was the importance of my work.""
A difference in her attitudes towards her peers and inferiors and those towards her superiors?

""And what is this? Always Articulate's Astounding Alchemy and Augury Alliterate Allusion Almanac?"
"Well, I'm eventually going to have to name the spell, so yeah...""
:D

"...now, who could that be..."
Aye.

[RoboRed]

That's a decent theory. I think it might be Vinyl, though. The theory holds about the same weight, given the idea of Vinyl as the illegitimate child of Night Light is more from Ponibius's fics in the Winningverse than the main stories from Chengar (can't recall the allegation being made in the main story). But it's one of my favorites.   

Also, Ponibius's Winningverse fics seem to be popular.

[O. Hinds]

@Twilight's sister being Trixie:
:D

RoboRed is probably correct, though, now that I think of it.  swicked has a bit of a point, but I'm wondering if, if there's any real basis to Sunset "Twilight Sparkle is trying to ride in on her family connections and steal my work" Shimmer's claims of brattiness at all, Vinyl might try to be extra, unusually bratty around the pony who's mean to her BSBFF (assuming that she and Twilight have that relationship).

[RoboRed]

Usual fandom personality for Vinyl has her as a good person, albeit loud, brash, lazy, a bit stubborn, and maybe a bit immature. A few of those qualities would be enough for someone like Sunset Shimmer to call Vinyl a "brat". I imagine her as the loud little sister who spends most of her time listening to the music turned up loud, who really doesn't want to do anything she's told just because she's lazy, but she still loves and supports her family a lot. Hinds has a good point in saying that Vinyl might try acting bratty or obnoxious around someone her older sister doesn't like.

Of course, for all we know, she could be completely different. Vinyl has almost no personality developed from canon material. But, I doubt that would happen. The fanon personality is already ingrained too much in everyone's minds, and nobody's personality has really deviated that much in this AU story so far.

Anyways, these are the stories in which the idea of Vinyl as the possible illegitimate child of Night Light are mentioned. It's brought up in the first, and alluded to in the second. Also, you might want to read Midnight's Shadow, since it's a Lunar Rebellion story. And, it focuses on Midnight Sparkle.
https://www.fimfiction.net/story/53958/the-study-of-a-winning-pony
https://www.fimfiction.net/story/130530/the-incredibly-trying-performance-of-octavia
https://www.fimfiction.net/story/108185/midnights-shadow

[O. Hinds]

Replies to swicked:

Also, I'd just like to say that it was, as usual, a pleasure reading your commentaries.

[O. Hinds]

...I guess. The materfamilias decides who is adopted, though. Sure, she can take advice on the matter, but it's still the old leader picking the new leader, even if that's not necessarily through blood. There is nothing resembling an election process, here.

The commander is elected by the ephors, though, and I imagine that no one would think any less of an ephor or commander who had been born outside a clan. It's not a total democracy, certainly, but it would seem to offer many more opportunities for advancement by merit than the Unicornian system.

You think it natural for a historian to have been part of a nearly-averted fight to the death in the modern day and age of the Winningverse? I guess I just figured that world was a bit less brutal.

Oh, you don't think that these notes are from Cloud Kicker?

...it occurs to me that Polaris is getting most of his cues from an apparently unscrupulous mercenary. How much you wanna bet that guy could be purchased right out from under Polaris and start giving him bad advice?

Hm. That depends on whether his lack of scruples extend to his hiring process. Some mercenaries could be bought out relatively easily if the price was right, but others, whatever dirty tricks they might use, would hold fast to their contracts to avoid getting bad reputations and losing future business. We can't yet rule it out as a possibility, though…

There would be no honor in a fight to the death with her old, blind father. She would knock the guy out and incapacitate him, much like she would if a child were to attack her. Shadow doesn't strike me as someone to use deadly force just because the other person asks for it. It would reflect very badly on her and I don't know how she'd be able to spin that to anyone other than fabricating some means for Cyclone to have accidently killed himself in the effort to kill her.
There's just no reason I can think of for her to kill the guy, whether or not Cyclone would want her to.

Hm, yes, I suppose that she could probably just incapacitate him.

And if she was really clever, some of those he left behind were actually loyal to him, but that she had spread rumor that they were working for her 

:D

[O. Hinds]

I don't seem to have a great amount of commentary on this one.

On Rising Shadows 4:

[Sponsored content]