Re: The True Story of Shadow Kicker (and other Winningverse speculation)

[O. Hinds]

Well, I've just read A Moment in the Sun.

A few comments, made as I read:

You might like this one, swicked.  It's not Lunar Rebellion Era, but its only tag is "Tragedy".

[O. Hinds]

Interlude 5 of The Lunar Rebellion is out, but I don't seem to have any particular comments on it.

[Forevermore]

I liked how the first real victory of the Loyalists was done by somepony other than Shadow. I liked Radiant Day from his introduction and it's nice to see him getting some POV focus. Unfortunately, I'm fairly certain that Rightly's capture is going to create a temporary power vacuum the Lunar cultists are going to fill. We know they take over eventually and now seems like the appropriate time for it to start.

[O. Hinds]

Ah, thanks.

[O. Hinds]

So, the guest chapter:

[Forevermore]

Interesting insights into Swift's character. I definitely agree that he's not behind Lance's transformation into the Nightmare Avatar. Which begs the question of just who is orchestrating those events.

It's nice to see the main flaw with Pegasopolis' Spartan-esque government highlighted for once. Their obsession with honor and glory on the battlefield has left them economically weak and their infrastructure severely lacking. In a modern society, Swift Blade would probably be the most powerful and influential of the ephorate because he controls all of Pegasopolis' actual infrastructure (such as it is).

I can already tell Fair Deal is corrupt to the core. The guy's entire story seems to be built around seizing power and wealth under the guise of liberty. I suspect he's our first glimpse of a pony communist, which might well become a movement post-war.

Cyclone's death wasn't surprising. I suspect it's suicide. Pegasopolis' seems to be very Japanese in the way they treat suicide as an honorable practice. Cyclone failed his mission, therefore the only way he could die with dignity was to take his own life. I suspect this will affect even a purely sociopathic Shadow more than she's willing to admit. For all their disagreements, she did seem to honestly love him. The constant "I have no father" and "He is a traitor" comes across very much as denial of her real feelings. I think this is good as it humanizes the character.

[RoboRed]

Welp, so long, Cyclone Kicker. I wonder how he died, but I suspect we may very well find out in the next chapter.

Also, I don't care what happens to Fair Deal. Organizing class warfare never ends well.

[O. Hinds]

Midnight's Shadow 6:

[Forevermore]

Read Midnight's Shadow 6. Interesting chapter. I'm convinced Carrot Casserole is one of the warlocks but I don't think Midnight's being ill is due to poison. Midnight's been established as not having much of a physical constitution, so her fatigue combined with exposure would get even a robust person sick.

Carrot Root's statement lends significant support to the thrall theory. He said he wasn't sure what had come over him, which is pretty common in cases of brainwashing and mental suggestion. This further supports the idea that Casserole is involved with the warlocks.

I don't think the herbalist was actually attempting to poison Midnight. It's too obvious an attempt for the warlocks who have been so carefully subtle so far. Now, nobody informing the herbalist that her usual remedy was poisonous to unicorns. . . that's a possible avenue of attack. So the attempted poisoning might have been deliberate but the herbalist herself was probably not involved.

"Thou art in danger, child. Wake up!"
…Luna?

I think Sunbeam is the more likely answer. Luna's still insane right now (for all we know) so it's unlikely she'd be in a position to help. Sunbeam seems like the kind of mother who'd have redundant wards around Midnight to alert her to danger.

[O. Hinds]

I think Sunbeam is the more likely answer. Luna's still insane right now (for all we know) so it's unlikely she'd be in a position to help. Sunbeam seems like the kind of mother who'd have redundant wards around Midnight to alert her to danger.

Hm, yes, that could be a possibility. I was thinking only of live intervention, not preplaced wards; thanks.

[O. Hinds]

Oh, and it turns out that the name thing is referring to "Sparkle", not "Midnight".

[Forevermore]

Not much to say on the new Sunset Shimmer story. It introduces us to the caribou for the first time (aside from brief mentions in Empress Sunbeam's alternate timeline) and confirms they have some form of magic. I wonder if they'll factor into the Lunar Rebellion at some point? I could see either side attempting to bring in outside aid as the war drags on (similar to how the U.S. pulled in France during the Revolution).

[O. Hinds]

Aye, not much to say yet. I expect that there will be a great deal in the future, though.

[Forevermore]

Comments on the new Lunar Rebellion chapter:

Shadow's attempted seduction of Rightly was interesting. I got the distinct impression she was trying to use his feelings (and sex) to manipulate him into coming over to her side. This would both weaken the Lunars' cause, quite probably convince a significant portion to change loyalties, as well as undermine any attempt by the Ephorate to gainsay him. It wouldn't look good at all if the ephors ousted two commanders in sequence.

Mossy Banks continues to be kind of awesome. He's possibly the first (that I've noticed) unicorn whom Sunbeam seems to genuinely respect. Which leads me to wonder if he's a candidate for Midnight's sire.

The constant downpour is an interesting battle tactic. Not one I would've considered. Fairly clever.

We've confirmed Stalwart's suicide now. I don't see any reason to suspect foul play.

[O. Hinds]

Rising Shadows 8:

[Forevermore]

Hm.  Celestia is present for this, so Gale's reaction must be what happened.  Is it genuine, though, or an act?  Thoughts?

I think largely genuine. Gale is very merciless and manipulative but she's not completely heartless. We never got any real look into Cyclone's and Gale's relationship but I think we can assume they were fairly close based on prewar Cyclone's and Shadow's (close parent/child relationships tend to lead to close grandparent/grandchild relationships). Plus, we have to remember that Gale is still fairly young (can't remember if teens or early twenties) so emotional outbursts are pretty common. The sudden news of "your grandfather has committed suicide and your mother drove him to it" would be shocking under any circumstances.

[O. Hinds]

Aye, that makes sense.

[O. Hinds]

Commentary on The Freeport Venture Chapter 2:

[RoboRed]

Spoiler:

[O. Hinds]

Spoiler:

[RoboRed]

I have, but it's been a long time.

[O. Hinds]

For me, too.

[Forevermore]

Comments on "Tales From the Phoenix Empire" Chapter 4

Absolutely wonderful chapter. So many new developments and some great characterization for Phoenixverse Applejack.
Just Cause is somewhat troubling to me. He seems to be the Phoenixverse version of Blueblood. I don't really like having a possible Blueblood as a villain. I prefer stories where he's more of a bumbling but well-meaning fop or even something of a heroic figure (his treatment of Rarity being a front to deter gold diggers). That said, he does have significant depth and plenty of potential. I like how his backstory ties into Sunbeam's gelding of the noble class (hard evidence that it was not painless).
Changelings working for the Empire was surprising but not completely unexpected. Sunbeam seems very much the type to follow the philosophy "don't throw away what you can use." While we don't know her method of control, I'd imagine she's pragmatic enough to have coerced the changelings with promises of food and safety. Much like how most Chrysalis redemption fics use the overwhelming love present in Equestrian society to turn her to good. There's a possibility of them siding with Nightmare Moon upon her return but I highly doubt it.
Braeburn's attitude leads me to believe he knew what was in those barrels (or at least knew it wasn't fruit). The nervousness, the desperation, his whole demeanor stank of deception. That said, I don't believe he's in deep with the cultists and is probably just misguided. As Applejack pointed out, Just Cause's grievances with the Empire were genuine and his argument quite persuasive. Braeburn has never been the smartest of ponies in any incarnation so the likelihood of him being swayed into helping a cause without fully understanding it is quite high.

[O. Hinds]

One thing: in the main Winningverse, at least, the Free Minds are changelings who rebelled against Chrysalis (she tried to create highly intelligent and independent changelings to make better infiltrators but failed to adapt her management practices to working with smart and independent changelings), so there might still be conflict with her.
…Ah, or not. I thought I remembered seeing this:

Perhaps that was why I preferred Imperial History: The Griffonian Pacification, the destruction of Chrysalis and the Changeling Swarm, saving the Free Minds from her tyranny.

[O. Hinds]

Hinds, what is your opinion of Sunset Shimmer?

Hm… Not sure I have much of one at the moment; sorry.

I think I might stop following the freeport adventure before I've even finished the first chapter, and stop with Midnight's Shadow as well.

Well, I'm sorry about the latter, but regarding the former, might it not be a bit earlier? The plot is only just kicking off, it seems to me, and Sunset may still do something to be of interest to you.

Midnight's story being especially aggravating due to how obvious it is that the story will never be about getting rid of manipulative people who sabotage you and mess with your life. It will always be about Midnight happily under Gale's hoof and no one doing anything about it.

Probably, yes.

Does the cult of Shadow even exist in her universe?

I don't recall any explicit statements about it, but I'd guess not. Actually, I do vaguely remember some negative… I'm not going to bother to find it at the moment, but I seem to recall something about Shadow mellowing a lot once settling down with Celestia was actually an option.

[O. Hinds]

Hm. How far have you gotten in The Freeport Venture?

[O. Hinds]

Wait, she knows Twilight? I don't remember that. I can't seem to find a mention of it, either.

Anyway, you might want to read up to the current chapter's ending; things have started happening by then. If Sunset is still putting you off, though... well, sorry.

[O. Hinds]

...I have no memory of that at all. I searched the story leading to this one this one and didn't find any occurrences of the words "Twilight" or "Sparkle", except for one mention of Sunbeam, outside the comments.

That does sound like what's been happening in the Phoenix Empire universe, though; were you thinking of that instead? Sorry.

[O. Hinds]

Ah. Yeah, the presence of Celestia and the absence of Sunbeam do rather preclude it being the Phoenix Empire universe. :)

[Forevermore]

Comments on "Tales From the Phoenix Empire" Chapter 5

Been getting the vibe from some comments that people seem to think overthrowing Sunbeam would be a bloodless coup. I'm going to try and explain all the reasons why forcibly removing Sunbeam from power would be a terrible decision.
1. Sunbeam enjoys massive popular support. The dissident elements we've seen (such as Just Cause) are very much underground and minority, as evidenced by their need for discretion. Most ponies seem to follow Applejack's way of thinking "the Empire isn't perfect, but no government is." Rainbow Dash holds a similar view, disliking Sunbeam personally but remaining loyal to the Empire as a whole.
2. People seem to think that a transition of power from Sunbeam to Luna would be seamless. But Luna is an unknown element known only through story and song. Most of which deal with her insanity and attempt to destroy the world. Ponies at large would know very little of the uncorrupted Luna and would react violently to the idea (however misguided) of a monster taking the throne.
3. Luna has no legal claim to the imperial throne. When Luna and Celestia ruled, Equestria was a confederacy between three individual states. The Empire is a singular entity united beneath a sole ruler and follows a completely different legal structure from the old trinity. Luna may be able to make her claim to Equestria stick, but none of the provinces would stand for it.
4. Sunbeam very much IS the Empire. We've gotten hints that the provinces aren't terribly happy being under pony rule and mostly stay complacent out of dependence on Imperial resources and fear of the Empress' forces. With Sunbeam's death or imprisonment, it would only be a matter of time before they declared their independence (the caribou would likely start within the day). As human history shows us, such rebellion almost always begins and ends violently.
5. The seat of the imperial throne is the most powerful position in the world. No two-bit warlord or politician with a shred of greed is just going to let it remain empty. They would certainly not hand it over to another alicorn who has only the support of the conspirators who deposed the former empress. We'd probably see violence within a month as the ambitious martial their forces to wrest the throne by force. I'd think it likely that the various provinces would try for the throne, as well.
6. Based on what we've heard of uncorrupted Luna from the Lunar Rebellion story, I'd actually see her and Sunbeam getting along pretty well. Luna was the far more direct of the two, favoring pragmatic and often violent solutions to problems. She'd very likely approve of Sunbeam's expansion in the name of order.
7. From what we've seen, the Circle doesn't actually want Sunbeam removed from power (likely for many of the reasons I've listed). They exist to be a check on her ambition, acting as the conscience she is psychologically incapable of possessing. Sunbeam, from what we've seen, is very much aware that absolute power corrupts absolutely and allows the Circle to exist to prevent that very thing from happening. There is no guarantee of any successor not possessing such self-awareness and attempting to root out the Circle so they can run free. Luna in particular has a terrible track record in this regard and there's no telling if or when she'll become the Nightmare again.
In short, I believe that any successful coup against Sunbeam would unleash a war of such scale it would make the Lunar Rebellion look like a playground scuffle.

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